J9九游会AG

新闻详情

研调电视面板明年首季逼近现金成本 供需比高达11.7%

日期:2022-11-19 11:30
浏览次数:19
摘要: 研调电视面板明年首季逼近现金成本 供需比高达11.7% 在宅经济带动电视、显示器和笔电需求连续两年攀升之后,2022年三大面板应用市场需求放缓。 TrendForce研究部副总范博毓表示,明年面板产能持续增加,需求成长空间有限,全年供需比7.3%、比较宽松的状况,**季供需比高达11.7%、接近历史高点,小尺寸电视面板价格年底接近现金成本、大尺寸面板也将在**季触及,预期电视面板明年**季就将亏钱。 时序进入第四季,面板价格跌势不止,TrendForce针对2022年展望提出看...

研调电视面板明年首季逼近现金成本 供需比高达11.7%



在宅(zhai)经济带动(dong)电(dian)(dian)视(shi)、显示(shi)器(qi)和(he)笔电(dian)(dian)需(xu)求(qiu)连续两(liang)年(nian)攀升之(zhi)后,2022年(nian)三大(da)面(mian)板应用市场需(xu)求(qiu)放缓(huan)。 TrendForce研究部副总范博(bo)毓(yu)表(biao)示(shi),明(ming)年(nian)面(mian)板产能持(chi)续增加(jia),需(xu)求(qiu)成长空间有限,全年(nian)供(gong)需(xu)比7.3%、比较(jiao)宽松的状(zhuang)况(kuang),**季供(gong)需(xu)比高达11.7%、接近(jin)历史高点,小(xiao)尺(chi)寸电(dian)(dian)视(shi)面(mian)板价格年(nian)底接近(jin)现金成本、大(da)尺(chi)寸面(mian)板也(ye)将(jiang)在**季触及,预期电(dian)(dian)视(shi)面(mian)板明(ming)年(nian)**季就(jiu)将(jiang)亏钱。

时序进(jin)入第四季,面板(ban)价格跌势不止,TrendForce针对2022年(nian)(nian)展(zhan)望提出(chu)看法。范博毓表(biao)示,中国液晶电(dian)(dian)视(shi)(shi)内需(xu)市场(chang)(chang)需(xu)求疲弱,过去(qu)两(liang)年(nian)(nian)都是靠着北美市场(chang)(chang)需(xu)求支撑(cheng),随着宅经济消退(tui),北美市场(chang)(chang)需(xu)求衰退(tui),今年(nian)(nian)下半(ban)年(nian)(nian)电(dian)(dian)视(shi)(shi)面板(ban)需(xu)求转弱。预期2022年(nian)(nian)电(dian)(dian)视(shi)(shi)整机市场(chang)(chang)规(gui)模维持在2.15亿台,相比今年(nian)(nian)微幅(fu)增长,其中OLED电(dian)(dian)视(shi)(shi)出(chu)货稳定成长,液晶电(dian)(dian)视(shi)(shi)出(chu)货则是小幅(fu)衰退(tui)。至(zhi)于电(dian)(dian)视(shi)(shi)面板(ban)方(fang)面,因为产(chan)能增加,全年(nian)(nian)出(chu)货将冲上2.73亿片(pian),年(nian)(nian)成长5.4%。

近两年(nian)因为疫情推(tui)升IT产(chan)品需求大幅成(cheng)长,在宅经济退烧之后,预估(gu)显示器(qi)整机(ji)市场(chang)略减至1.43亿(yi)台(tai)、年(nian)减2.1%。但是面(mian)板(ban)(ban)产(chan)能充沛,中国面(mian)板(ban)(ban)厂(chang)持续(xu)扩大供给,预估(gu)明年(nian)监视器(qi)面(mian)板(ban)(ban)出货持续(xu)成(cheng)长、来到1.78亿(yi)片(pian),年(nian)增3.5%。

笔(bi)电(dian)去(qu)年爆发(fa)性成长,因(yin)为(wei)供(gong)不应求,部分需求延后(hou)到今(jin)年,预(yu)估今(jin)年笔(bi)电(dian)市场(chang)规模来到2.39亿台,明年虽然有所降温,但是预(yu)期还是会维持在2.2亿台的上(shang)等水(shui)准(zhun)。笔(bi)电(dian)面(mian)板来看,今(jin)年出货约2.77亿片,明年将(jiang)略增至(zhi)2.79亿片。

范博毓表示(shi),整体来看(kan),三(san)项(xiang)大(da)尺寸面板应(ying)用(yong)明年(nian)需求都有(you)所降温,但是(shi)(shi)面板产能持(chi)续(xu)扩大(da),全年(nian)供(gong)(gong)过于求的压力相当大(da)。以面板供(gong)(gong)需比率来看(kan),今年(nian)第(di)三(san)季(ji)因为需求锐减,供(gong)(gong)需严(yan)重失衡、供(gong)(gong)需比来到(dao)9.7%,在价格大(da)跌后,第(di)四季(ji)拉货(huo)有(you)所提升,供(gong)(gong)需比回复到(dao)5.4%。但是(shi)(shi)明年(nian)**季(ji)进入传统淡(dan)季(ji),而且目前供(gong)(gong)应(ying)链库(ku)(ku)存水位偏高(gao),去化库(ku)(ku)存要一些时间,预估**季(ji)供(gong)(gong)需比达到(dao)11.7%、接近历史新高(gao)。随着拉货(huo)逐渐回温,供(gong)(gong)需差距将逐季(ji)缩小,下半年(nian)可(ke)望(wang)收敛至5%以下。

范博(bo)毓(yu)表示,虽电(dian)视面(mian)(mian)(mian)板(ban)价(jia)格(ge)大(da)(da)跌(die),但IT面(mian)(mian)(mian)板(ban)还有利润(run),面(mian)(mian)(mian)板(ban)厂不愿(yuan)意启动(dong)大(da)(da)规模减产,只(zhi)能削价(jia)冲(chong)刺出(chu)货,电(dian)视面(mian)(mian)(mian)板(ban)价(jia)加速赶底(di)。小(xiao)尺寸电(dian)视面(mian)(mian)(mian)板(ban)价(jia)今年底(di)接近现金(jin)成本、大(da)(da)尺寸电(dian)视面(mian)(mian)(mian)板(ban)在**季下探(tan)现金(jin)成本,电(dian)视面(mian)(mian)(mian)板(ban)将陷(xian)入亏损。